Where will the Cargo Go when Poland Closes the Border with Belarus

On February 10, Poland closed the Bobrovniki - Berestovitsa checkpoint on the border with Belarus. The transit point Kukuryki - Kozlovichi is now exclusively used for freight transport.

In response, since February 17, Belarus has banned Polish trucks from entering its territory through Lithuania or Latvia. Thus, the Kukuryki - Kozlovichi stage remains the only option for the transportation of goods by Polish companies to Belarus.

At the same time, for Belarusian carriers and companies not registered in the EU or EFTA countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Liechtenstein), the stage is no longer available from February 21.

This will not completely stop the transit of goods between the countries, as the cargo interception system is still actively used. Thus, carriers from the European Union can deliver goods only to the border of Belarus, and then they are transported by Russian or Belarusian transport companies - and vice versa.

That is why in 2022 the transit of goods between Poland and Belarus did not stop. However, it has significantly decreased - by 48.7% compared to the indicators of 2021. In many ways, the reason for this was the closure of the Bruzgi - Kuznitsa crossing on November 9, 2021. Its capacity, according to the border service of Belarus, was 580 trucks per day.

The closure of the Berestovitsa - Bobrovniki point in February of this year significantly affected cargo transportation in the region, because in 2022 28.9% of trucks passing through the Belarusian border passed through it. This means that even if the cargo traffic at the Kozlovichi - Kukuriki crossing remains the same, truck traffic will drop to 428 thousand cars per year.

Part of the cargo flow can be redirected through the border crossing of Poland and Lithuania Budzisko-Kalvaria. It can pass up to 1000 trucks per day. However, even with a full load, it will not be able to provide the drop-down total throughput of closed border crossings with Poland - 1080 trucks per day (580 cars - Bruzgi - Kuznitsa, 500 cars - Berestovitsa - Bobrovniki). In addition, Lithuania itself refused to provide normal autotransit with Belarus, which was stated in the border committee of Belarus in mid-February 2023.

Complicating this situation, in his opinion, is the fact that it will be almost impossible to reorient cargo flows from road to rail transport. "It is not always cost-effective or possible for technical reasons," he points out.

Lipatov noted that after the introduction of restrictions in February of this year, the queues of trucks stretched quite a lot. Now Polish carriers are much more willing to use Lithuanian and Latvian border crossings. "If the Polish border completely stops working for the passage of motor cargo transport, transit may be reoriented for some time. All the restrictions that are emerging now are not caused by some unsolvable factor, for example, a narrow road at a border crossing, if one of the parties to any crossing changes its mind to let transport - it will not be possible to force it. In fact, this applies to all EU borders with Belarus," he said.

Economic losses are always borne by two parties, and they are quite obvious in the current situation. On the one hand, it seems that business will analyze the situation as it develops, but emergency measures most likely will not be able to compensate for all losses. Taking into account the fact that the complete closure of the borders of Poland and Belarus for road cargo transportation has been discussed for months, it can be assumed that the most far-sighted companies have developed and, possibly, have already implemented solutions to this logistical problem," says Olga Panina, Head of the Department of State and Municipal Administration of the Financial University.

In her opinion, reorientation to rail transportation, despite the restrictions, is possible, including through the Baltic states. Transit of Chinese goods plays an important role for the region. The expert also pointed out that sea transportation can become a worthy alternative for cargo transportation.

"It is necessary to take into account that the construction of any alternative routes is associated with various logistical and technical difficulties, the replacement of modes of transport, loading and unloading of goods, which affect the timing and cost of delivery," concluded Panina.

Restrictions on the movement of freight transport across the Polish-Belarusian border leads to an escalation of relations between the countries. Even if the countries do not completely close the borders for trucks, Poland and Belarus still suffered losses from the restrictions already imposed. The damage from the disruption of logistics chains remains to be calculated, but the key problem lies in the political crisis, which leads to the rupture of economic relations. It affects not only the conflicting parties, but also third countries, which also have to rebuild their economic policies and incur losses.

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