What Can the Closure of Border Crossings Between Poland and Belarus Lead to?

The Polish authorities do not rule out the closure of all border crossings on the border with Belarus. This was stated by Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki at a press conference following the EU summit. Earlier, Poland had already closed the border crossing in Bobrovniki.

There are six crossings between Poland and Belarus: three passenger, one cargo and two passenger. Now only Brest (passenger) and Kozlovichi (cargo) are operating.

ACEX partners told  Rossiyskaya Gazeta what the possible closure of border crossings between Poland and Belarus may lead to.

The potential decision to close border crossings should be considered in two dimensions, says Georgy Vlastopulo, CEO of Optimalog, partner of the ACEX Alliance in Moscow: "The first is the goods and transport corridor between the EU and companies in Russia and Belarus. For these companies, this development is not critical, after the introduction of sanctions, they partially refocused on the supply of goods through the Baltic states. If transit through Poland is closed, they will redirect the rest of the goods through the Baltic states." According to him, changing the routes of transportation of goods can add from 2 to 5 days to the transit of goods between the EU and Russia. So, logistics costs are unlikely to grow much, the expert believes.

"Another aspect is that companies in third countries, for example, in Kazakhstan, will also suffer because of Poland's unilateral decision, which may cause a number of difficulties, perhaps even retaliatory measures from these countries against Warsaw," Vlastopulo believes.

He believes that the possible decision of the Polish authorities will not entail serious economic consequences. Sanctions restrictions, in particular, mutual bans between EU countries, on the one hand, and Russia and Belarus, on the other, have already seriously affected transport companies. "Now, of course, it will be even worse – first of all, for Belarusian firms, which are still largely engaged in servicing this road corridor. Russian and Polish companies will suffer less, and Baltic firms will benefit," he added.

From an economic point of view, making such decisions is always a blow to the economy for both sides and this case is no exception, recalls Olga Panina, Head of the Department of State and Municipal Administration of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. "Not only Belarus will suffer, but also Poland. It will also affect a number of European Union countries that previously transported goods through this corridor," she is sure. - There will be a reduction in trade turnover between the countries. Businesses and carriers will suffer losses, and many people employed in logistics will lose their jobs." She also allowed temporary interruptions in the delivery of some types of goods. In her opinion, carriers still have one way out - to look for alternative routes. The expert suggested that transit can be carried out on a longer route - through Lithuania. Panina concluded: "Extra kilometers of travel is an increase in costs affecting all logistics chains. In the end, consumers will suffer."

According to Andrey Suzdaltsev, associate professor at the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics at the Higher School of Economics, the closure of border crossings will be a response to the visa-free regime for Poles introduced by Belarus in July 2022. "Basically, it was used by those Poles who wanted to buy cheap Belarusian goods. This created an additional demand for them," the expert stated.